Home Helminths (including anthelmintic resistance) [Mathematical models] Mathematical models for prediction and control
Helminths (including anthelmintic resistance) roadmap:
Control Strategies

Roadmap for nematode control strategies

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Mathematical models

Mathematical models for prediction and control

Research Question

Can we improve current mechanistic mathematical models to replace current forecasting systems that are only applicable to certain regions and to evaluate novel control strategies?

Research Gaps and Challenges

Current forecasting systems cannot be extrapolated to other regions without further development and validation.
Poor quantitative understanding of acquired immunity mechanisms.
Poor understanding of the proportion of animals really showing high quantity of nematodes, i.e. drivers of aggregation.
Poor understanding of the importance of nutrition on the onset of production impact or clinical problems.
Poor understanding of the pivotal importance of adult animals as carriers of nematode populations from summer to spring or from rainy season to the next rainy season.

Solution Routes

Experiments on effects of environmental conditions on the development and survival of infective stages on pasture in different geographical settings.
Development of transmission models that simulate disease dynamics and host responses, and production consequences.
Develop easy methods for farmer input of data on animal density and status, treatments and movements, to calibrate models. Also means of presenting results to farmers for decision support.

Dependencies

Field data on levels of infection to validate models.
Impact of climate change in all the epidemiological models of infective stage development and survival.

State Of the Art

There is information on the paddock infectivity in many temperate areas but need to be re-visited w.r.t. climate change
Information in non-temperate ecosystems is limited and points to lower survival of free living stages.
Modelling must consider the death of most infective larvae in the dry season of many tropical areas, which means that adult animals become the carrier of susceptible or resistant GI nematodes. Hence, TST schemes are crucial in those conditions.