ELUCIDATE: Understanding model use at the science-policy interface to improve preparedness for animal disease outbreaks

Livestock disease epidemics have dramatic and disastrous impacts on rural communities and economies. In addition to financial concerns for individual farms and farmers, livestock epidemics disrupt food and supply chains, impact unemployment and poverty in rural economies, lead to widespread animal suffering, and mental health challenges for people impacted. The enormous impact of livestock disease outbreaks on both animals and humans make them a key one health challenge. A rapid, effective and well-planned response to such epidemics is a priority for governments. Through the work proposed here, we will contribute to this effort by exploring the critical role that modelling plays in modern epidemic preparedness, and how this can be made clearer, more effective and more transparent.

The question of how to best to identify and facilitate the deployment, uptake and acceptance of effective and appropriate modelling methods has typically remained the preserve of quantitative scientists. This project takes an interdisciplinary approach to further our develop and understanding of these questions. Historical analysis of previous outbreaks, including the 2001 foot and mouth disease outbreak, shows that the use of epidemiological models was considered important (Scudamore and Harris, 2002), but is not without controversy. During the foot and mouth crisis there were disagreements about the legitimacy of models, about the role of science in policy making and whether there was an inequitable hierarchy of whose knowledge should influence decision makers (Bickerstaff and Simmons, 2004; Enticott et al., 2011).

There is a need for more collaborative approaches between scientists and policy makers that lead to better choices in selection, design and analysis of models; for a deeper understanding of how policy makers assess and use models as part of their 'epidemiological toolbox'; and to improve how scientists and policy makers communicate.

This project has three aims:

To carry out transdisciplinary team and capacity building;
to review the available evidence on the use of models in assessing veterinary epidemiology risks;
and to develop transdisciplinary research proposals to enhance epidemic preparedness by improving use of these models at the science-policy interface.
The transdisciplinary team brings together veterinarians, epidemiologists, quantitative and qualitative modellers, science/policy brokerage specialists, social scientists and historians with key government, industry and non-governmental organisation stakeholders.

The project will focus on three exemplar diseases which present severe current and future risks to different sectors of the livestock industry: foot and mouth disease, African swine fever and bluetongue. These are all exotic, notifiable diseases with detailed, agreed GB-scale control strategies (Anon, 2022). However, they demonstrate distinct modelling and policy challenges. The project will be divided into three work packages: WP1 delivers catalysing workshops at the start and end of the project to build transdisciplinary capacity within the project team, agreeing the focus of WP2 and WP3, and developing plans for further research. WP2 will deliver an interdisciplinary evidence synthesis on modelling practice, the communication of models and the use of models at the science-policy interface. WP3 involves the activities of multiple, parallel Research Interest Groups, which will explore key research questions, using the results from WP2, and formulate and discuss research ideas which will form the building blocks of a future research project. This structure is intended to facilitate transdisciplinary co-creation of research ideas to increase animal disease outbreak preparedness by facilitating better use of models in decision making.