Summary
Non Technical Summary
The Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development serves to enhance the capacity of Land Grant Universities in fostering rural development and prosperity. We conduct original research on emerging problems while also serving the land grant system's outreach mission. The Center reports to a Board of Directors representing senior land grant leadership and is guided by a Technical Advisory Committee comprised of extension and research faculty. We link our stakeholders to opportunities and resources at federal and state levels and connect them across topic areas and state borders, eliminating duplication and ensuring efficient use of taxpayer money.This proposal addresses the six goals identified in the RRDC RFA of putting American farmers, ranchers, and foresters first. We propose (1) using county-level U.S. Ag Census data and state-of-the-art statistical models to identify structural challenges and opportunities facing farmers, as manifest in growth and declines in farm numbers; (2) exploring the use of alternative sources of income, including on-farm energy generation (e.g., biodigesters), agritourism and Controlled Environment Agriculture; (3) documenting the northeast region's contribution to the nation's supply of healthy, nutrient dense food; (4) examining new opportunities for rural areas, such as developing the local tourism and recreational economy, and identifying other means of expanding and developing domestic markets; (5) training the next generation of agriculturalists; and (6) examining the role of innovation both as an outcome and strategic input in rural development. We also will build regional Cooperative Extension System capacity and share research findings with both scientific and lay audiences.
Objectives & Deliverables
Goals / Objectives
Goal 1: Identify structural challenges and opportunities facing farmers. Farmers face many pressing and wide-ranging challenges, from evolving technology to changing input and output markets, to mental health. Some communities are better able to mitigate these challenges than others, and this is reflected in farm survival and exits over time. In fact, factors causing changes in farm numbers over time are among the best indicators of the challenges farmers face. In the Northeast U.S. the number of farms declined by 6.5% between 2002 and 2022, from 169,000 to 158,000 (U.S. Census of Agriculture, 2022). Yet this average masks great variation at the county level, and there are stark differences in farm success in the Northeast, with many counties even gaining farms (see Fig.1). Limited if any current information exists on the factors that either contribute to or mitigate farm exits in the U.S. Objectives: (a) We seek to understand the factors underlying changes in farm numbers over time to help policy makers and local organizations ensure necessary conditions are in place for farmers to thrive; (b) this research will also reveal factors that pose the greatest challenges and opportunities for farmers (e.g., Goetz and Debertin, 2001).Goal 2: Explore alternative sources of farm income. Identifying the community-level factors such as agritourism and efficient markets that keep farmers in business is one step in ensuring America's food and fiber supply (e.g., Ge et al. 2025). In addition, farmers can earn income through activities such as agritourism and high-value processing or by supplying energy from sources such as biodigesters. Relatedly, understanding how energy is used and shocks in different states affect farms and rural businesses, allows us to predict how America's energy supply affects the stability of rural economies. Objectives: (a) explore how state-level sources of alternative energy adoption affect farm income and survival; (b) examine the different sources of energy used by rural businesses, and how this matches up with availability of coal, oil or gas; (c) examine prospects for expanding activities such as agritourism or direct sales of agricultural products to consumers.Goal 3: Examine the Northeast region's contribution to the nation's supply of healthy, nutrient dense food: Although the Northeast U.S. contains a relatively small share of the nation's agricultural land, our preliminary work (unpubl.) reveals that it contributes significantly to the nation's supply of nutrient dense foods. Currently, limited systematic information exists on how different U.S. regions can or could contribute to a healthier food system. With shorter agricultural supply chains enabled by easier access to population centers, which move more unprocessed foods directly to consumers, the Northeast can potentially serve as a model for expanding the consumption of healthier foods, as targeted under the Making America Healthy Again initiative. Objectives: (a) document these contributions at the county level; (b) identify potential threats to production, including but not limited to urban sprawl and invasive species; (c) consider historical production patterns and explore the potential for introducing new, nutrient dense foods in the Northeast, that are not currently being grown; (d) examine the economic development potential as well as constraints, such as those related to the workforce.Goal 4: Examine new opportunities for rural areas. While the previous goals focus on farmers, here we propose to do the same for rural communities on which farms depend for their inputs, workers, and off-farm employment. A new economic opportunity is that of developing the tourism and recreational economy, especially in rural areas with amenities such as lakes, forests, mountains and other natural features (e.g, Han et al. 2025). Our initial research suggests that population in so-called recreation counties grew more rapidly since 2000 (by 30%) than that of any other economic sector type specified by the USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS). Yet barriers exist to developing the recreational economy, starting with lagging capacity in the Cooperative Extension System to help leaders navigate the challenges of developing local tourism economies without damaging the features that make the community desirable as a tourism destination in the first place. Related constraints include workforce availability and housing affordability for Hospitality and Leisure workers, one of the fastest growing sectors. Objectives: (a) continue to support the National Extension Outdoor Recreation Working Group, which has already leveraged this support to develop regional projects; (b) examine county-level factors that influence housing affordability and renter burdens; (c) examine prospects for high-value processing activities such as the manufacture of alcoholic beverages, which is also a booming part of the tourism trails economy; and (d) a final objective is examining the role and availability of broadband in accessing consumer markets.Goal 5: The NERCRD has a long and proud history of preparing the next generation of agriculturalists, having funded and trained numerous Ph.D. students as well as postdoctoral scholars, thanks both to the RRDC core funding and by leveraging successive competitive grants. Some former postdocs have taken positions in the land grant system, including one Extension faculty member at Mississippi State University, and recently, two assistant professors in research and teaching hired at Penn State University, while others work at the USDA within NIFA or at the ERS. This proposal requests funds that allow us to continue this training.Goal 6: Examine innovation both as an outcome and strategic input in rural development. The NERCRD has a research portfolio examining and measuring innovation and entrepreneurship occurring in rural areas, and the barriers and constraints to such innovation, such as a lack or presence of local supporting institutions. Our previous work using establishment-level data revealed that innovative activity is more prevalent in rural settings than previously understood. In addition to the role of innovation in strengthening rural economic resilience, entrepreneurship remains a vital engine for rural economic growth and adaptation. Our previous work on the impact of the USDA's Rural Business-Cooperative Service revealed that such programs can notably increase the birth rates of new rural firms. However, more research is needed on other types of support needed from local and federal governments to enhance rural resilience and firm growth. Objective: Examine the role of innovation in helping rural communities remain resilient, which at least indirectly spills over into the farm economy, helping it to remain robust. We will investigate the pivotal role of innovation in bolstering rural community resilience, which indirectly supports the robustness of the farm economy by fostering economic opportunities amid challenges such as service gaps and geographic isolation (e.g., Wojan et al. 2025).General Goal: Capacity building, facilitation, and outreach. We propose to continue to build on our long record of connecting LGU faculty and educators across state lines and identifying synergies for efficient program delivery. We have been asked by the Executive Director of the Northeast Extension Directors to convene community development educators in the region. Objectives: (a) Identify, amplify, and develop promising Extension programs that focus on priority areas for the region set by NIFA and our BOD and TAC; (b) Facilitate collaborations across the Cooperative Extension System to increase efficiency by creating and supporting knowledge-sharing networks that cross state lines; (c) Continue using and improving upon our communications platforms to help regional stakeholders stay ahead of relevant issues, opportunities, and resources.
Challenges
Project Methods
Goal 1 Methods:Our initial set of variables hypothesized to affect farmer well-being and survival includes access to farm markets and labor, alternative income sources such as agritourism or controlled environment agriculture (CEA), and off-farm employment; and rules and regulations affecting farming. We will identify determinants of changes in farm numbers using state-of-the-art econometric models, with county-level panel data and consideration of causal relations, of the general form:chg(Y) = a + bY0 + cP + dG + ewhere Y is farm numbers, chg(Y) is change in farm numbers over time, P denotes factors amenable to policy influence and G county-level factors that may or may not be exogenous, and county and time subscripts are suppressed except in the case of Y0 which denotes the initial numbers of farmers. The small letters are parameters to be estimated, with e denoting an error term.Goal 2 Methods:We will draw on the Center's long history of studying supply chains (e.g., Ge et al. 2025) and county economic resiliency of counties (Han and Goetz, 2015), to examine energy and other inputs in the context of national security.Goal 3 Methods:We will use crop specific state or county level production data (as available) to quantify the region's supply of nutrient dense foods. We will also examine the relationship, if any, between direct sales of food and the presence of other food sources such as fast-food restaurants at the county-level.Goal 4 Methods:Measuring or anticipating so-called over-tourism remains an important problem that we propose to investigate using secondary data. As part of this assessment, we request funds to purchase AirBnB and VRbO data (https://www.airdna.co), which will allow us to evaluate the role the shared housing economy plays in residential affordability, and to place values on different places, events and activities, such as natural parks or arts festivals in the region (e.g., Gellman et al. 2025).Goal 5 Methods:Our approach to evaluating such spillover effects on the wider economy will use input-output and spatial econometric models from which propagation paths from non-farm to farm sectors and vice versa can be identified. We will examine local factors affecting business development, including financial resources, the supply of land, energy, and other production factors, as well as institutional restrictions (land use and zoning regulations, permitting processes, local tax and fee structures, and business licensing requirements).General Goal, Capacity Building – Methods:Develop communications materials and engage with land-grant universities and regional partners for collaboration purposes. Develop regular print and online communication pieces, and organize webinars and other engagement opportunities.Stakeholder Input:The Center is guided by a Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) consisting of research and Extension faculty across the land grant university system in the Northeast U.S. and it reports annually to a Board of Directors consisting of senior leadership from the land grant system. This year, Dean Troy Ott of Penn State University's College of Agricultural Sciences will serve in an interim role on the Board. The Current Board Chair is Dr. Rick Rhodes, Executive Director of Ag Innovation Northeast (formerly Northeast Research Association); this allows us to benefit uniquely from a current perspective on emerging research issues and opportunities in the region. Professor Heather Stephens of West Virginia Univ., who also directs the Regional Research Institute at WVU, Chairs the TAC. We host monthly calls with BOD and TAC chairs, quarterly calls with the entire TAC, and an annual meeting with both our TAC and BOD. In addition, starting in October 2025, The Center will take over the hosting of monthly meetings of the Northeast Region Community and Economic Development program leaders, giving us a central role among these key stakeholders. The meeting serves as a forum to discuss emerging issues in community economic development, program priority areas, and work on collaborative projects for regional input. The Center will provide meeting technical and hosting capacity, organize meeting materials and agendas and oversee follow up action items.Integrated Research, Outreach and ExtensionWhile the NERCRD is best known for its research productivity, it also endeavors to share peer-reviewed findings in a timely and lay-audience friendly manner. Through the Associate Director for Extension, we have assessed Extension related needs and capacities, and strengthened our networks. We have launched a webinar series, which is critical for communications. Funding of a communications staff position allows us to develop user friendly factsheets and summaries of the research results, as well as summary reports, in addition to maintaining the Center's website.
Principle Investigator(s)
Planned Completion date: 14/09/2026
Effort: (N/A)
Project Status
ACTIVE
Principal Investigator(s)
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Researcher Organisations
Recipient Organization PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY 408 Old Main UNIVERSITY PARK,PA 16802-1505
United Kingdom